Is Sarah Steelman Closing The Gap?

A new SurveyUSA poll has been released in the Republican primary race for governor that is being used by KCTV and KSDK. It shows Hulshof with a 12 percentage point lead. That being said, there are some very important components to look at that can't be measured by this poll. I believe the race is much closer

First, I took a trip today to the Ozark Empire Fair and spent a couple of hours. I had a chance to talk to the people running the Republican party booth. They indicated that there was more interest toward Steelman at the fair than Hulshof. It was also interesting to note that the Steelman signs were out in the front of the booth.

Secondly, I headed down to the Democratic party booth where one of the individuals working discussed with me about the fact that many Democrats are voting for Steelman in the primary come Tuesday and that potential supporters for Nixon would be lost if she won the primary.

These two factors might not be any indication of what is to come on Tuesday although I have a feeling (and an educated one at that) that this governor's race may be within two to four points EITHER WAY.

Here is what to watch for:

1) Turnout: Kansas City and SW Missouri are Steelman's best areas. Big turnouts there will be good for her. A strong showing in Columbia and Northeast Missouri seems to ensure a Hulshof win.

2) Who votes: If large numbers of Independents and Democrats vote in the Republican primary, Steelman gains an advantage. This would mainly be an issue in SW Missouri and the the middle part of the state where few contested Democratic races are being fought locally.

3) Undecided voters: The percentage of undecided voters stands at 15. There are twice as many undecided females as males. That would seem to bode well for Steelman.

Either way, it should be an interesting Tuesday night.