My afternoons have been somewhat calmer than normal the past few days. That has allowed me the chance to browse the internet more than I usually do. A quick visit to KY3's website alarmed me this evening. Their headline reads "Forecasters predict possible huge tornado outbreak on Thursday." (By the way... you can click on the article to read the full story.) I have some knowledge of meteorology, but in no way would I consider myself an expert. I have been following the model data and forecasts for this event for a while now. I knew it could be bad... but this bad? Here?!? I apparently had missed some new developments since the afternoon discussions from the National Weather Service.
I clicked on the link and found these words: "The National Weather Service gave advance warning on Wednesday of a possible tornado outbreak in the Great Plains on Thursday. They say conditions are similar to a deadly day in 1974 when 39 tornadoes touched down."
If that doesn't draw your attention then I don't know what does. Yet, the article itself specifically only refers to areas from Northern Oklahoma through Iowa, specifically Central and Eastern Kansas. The AP article never once references Missouri. So I am left in a quandry: does this article pertain to the Ozarks or does it not? Is the Outbreak of 1974 coming or is it going to remain in Kansas?
My gut instinct knew what to do -- click on the weather forecast. Ron's discussion will be posted and he will have insight into this pending catastrophe. Here are his words of wisdom: "A line of severe storms is forecasted to form along the front and they will approach the Ozarks by early Friday morning. The front will wash out across the Ozarks late Friday and Saturday."
Woah. So it's not going to be bad here... but it is potentially bad enough to post the headline referencing a pending "huge tornado outbreak." Anyone dizzy yet?
This kind of situation is troublesome to me. As someone who has been reading forecast discussions, analyzing model data, and perusing soundings, I feel that tomorrow could be a pretty stormy night around with the threat of tornadoes. The problem exists because the general public is likely walking away from the KY3 website either thinking the world is coming to an end or we will only be getting a few scattered thunderstorms. Either they are stocking up on batteries for their weather radios or they are blissfully ignorant at the potential that exists for an outbreak of storms tomorrow.
Before the posters come on here saying that I must work for KOLR or KSPR and that I secretly hate the KY3 Stormteam, let me say that I respect Ron, Brandon, and Dave. I feel they are a great team of meteorologists. In this instance, however, KY3 needs to pick a position and provide analysis of that opinion. You can't be like the politician who says he has friends on both sides of the issue and that he stands with his friends. Either we have the potential for an outbreak or we don't. So which one is it Stormteam? Sitting on the fence is no place to reside when you claim you are "the place to be."
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2 comments:
Glad to see your post as this really concerns me.Almost every newspaper in Kansas is carrying this story.The latest information coming out of Wichita includes Southwest Missouri.I would urge everyone to pay close attention to the weather tomorrow especially since there seems to be conflicting information.
While I am not speaking for KY3 obviously, I can put in my opinion of the storms. This indeed does look like an incredible day of severe weather across the Plains, I've always hated trying to compare events to another specific major event that has happened before. I do see a huge outbreak in tornadoes possible across areas of northeast Kansas, into Nebraska and Iowa. Now will the Ozarks be dealing with this same outbreak, my guess is probably not because most of the action for us does not arrive until well after midnight when the best dynamics won't be in place still as they were during the daytime out in the Plains. Although if redevelopment of storms occur late Friday morning and into the afternoon we could see severe storms but all of that will depend on the amount of cloud cover that will be around on Friday morning that could limit any real storm development during Friday afternoon. So... Tornado Outbreak? YES just to our north and west of the Ozarks. The high risk area from the SPC, which only comes out a few times a year, is one of the largest in area I've seen in awhile for today. Thanks!
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